GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. Note: Seat estimates may not sum to the total number of seats because of third-party candidates. Maggie Astor Albert Sun The outcomes of the races in these three states will decide the balance of power in the Senate. Much like the safe Republican states, the following states are a sure-shot for Democrats. Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their states presidential leanings. Overall, incumbents won 87% of their races. Republican Kevin Kiley is an odds-on favorite to win this new open seat. In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents in the 2nd and 7th districts may offer early indications of how the party will fare in House races overall. Democratic candidates won the large majority of contests in 2012 and 2018 while Republicans won the large majority of contests in 2014, 2016, and 2020. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. In Ariz., Mont., Neb. Nate Cohn 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Missouri_State_Senate_election&oldid=1152538134, 2022 state legislature elections in the United States, Short description with empty Wikidata description, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from April 2023, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 30 April 2023, at 21:09. *Alaskas Senate race uses ranked-choice voting. Nov. 8, 2022, If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate. The results are displayed in Table 2. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. GOP Rep. Rick Allen never faced a real threat to his reelection. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these races. Because Alaska uses ranked choice voting, we may not know the winner until Nov. 23. Updated Every Day with the Latest Polling. RacetotheWH has in-depth predictions for every Governor, Senate and House Race, polling for the 2024 primaries, and a Bidens approval rating tracker. All rights reserved. . Dont expect quick results in either race; officials in Alaska wont finish counting absentee ballots for about two weeks. Particularly in the 2 decisive Georgia Senate runoffs held in early January 2021, Donald Trumps visibility and highly publicized claims of widespread voting fraud involving absentee ballots may have served to motivate Democratic voters while suppressing turnout among some Republican voters concerned that their votes would not be accurately counted. Michael Bennet and Patty Murray, respectively, to fall. Its important that our goal is not just to win the election but to have it feel like a profound repudiation of MAGA. With a 5050 Senate, the vice president should be the kingmaker and cast the tie-breaking vote. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. Unfortunately, the 60 seat goal is out of reach. Nov. 8, 2022, Rural counties in Virginias 7th district are counting votes more quickly than its most populous and left-leaning county, Prince William. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the biennial 2022 United States elections. Source: Data compiled by author. The most competitive races, with predicted margins of under 5 points, are expected to be in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. . Every day, it simulates the election 50,000 times. The latest Last updated Nov. 8, 2022 Our final forecast for the Senate is a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored over Democrats. Little to minimum campaigning would be required to secure a win for the following states: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington. I'm Steve Shepard, and with the help of my smart colleagues You write that Bidens argument for reelection is simple: Hes done a good job, and the country is better off. More than 200 Republicans who questioned or denied the 2020 election results have won in the midterms so far. J.D. Nov. 8, 2022, The Georgia Senate race, which could go to a Dec. 6 runoff, could determine which party controls the chamber. , Abigail Spanberger, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Virginias Seventh Congressional District. , Angie Craig, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Minnesotas Second Congressional District. Republicans won just over half (17 of 33) of the open seat contests during these years. Senate elections in California (2016 and 2018), Alabama (2014), and Arkansas (2020) were excluded because there were not 2 major-party candidates in the general election. I think its still yet unarticulated and undeveloped. Maggie Astor Ron DeSantis over Democratic opponent Charlie Crist by a margin of 11 percentage points. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman. | Privacy Policy, The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis. RCP Average 0 Days to Election Day. Where Senate Candidates Outperformed Biden and Trump. Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early in Wisconsin, but it looks close. Republicans need to flip only one seat to gain control of the Senate, while Democrats need to keep 50 seats to maintain control. See the rest of our predictions. NYT Graphics But 2022 will be a steeper climb. If you would like to change your settings or withdraw consent at any time, the link to do so is in our privacy policy accessible from our home page.. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. In Arizona, Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated the appointed Republican incumbent, Martha McSally, while in Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff, a documentary filmmaker and former congressional aide, defeated Republican incumbent David Perdue, and Democrat Raphael Warnock, pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, defeated appointed Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler. In 2020, Virginias early vote for president favored Republicans, while Pennsylvanias skewed toward Democrats. Gov. 0 seconds of 4 minutes, 49 seconds Volume 90%. Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. Representative Tom Malinowski, a second-term incumbent, conceded his race for re-election to his Republican opponent, Tom Kean Jr. Current House. Nov. 8, 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Welcome to our. In both 2012 and 2018, Manchin far outperformed the expected vote for a Democratic candidate in a state that Donald Trump carried twice by enormous margins. *The vice president, Kamala Harris, breaks 50-50 ties for the Democrats. Here are the states the Republicans will more than likely retain in 2022. Redistricting will change everything. Maggie Astor , Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, defeated Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed election denier, in the race for Pennsylvanias governor. These same counties favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by a margin of 8 percentage points a whopping 19-point swing. Web2022. Brian Kemp gained more votes compared to Trump in 2020 all across Georgia, beating Stacey Abrams by a more than seven-point margin. Mail voting in 2020 contributed to longer wait times for results. Click here!, Click here for the National 2022 Senate Forecast, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. Heres how POLITICOs are different: Weve demystified the midterms taking you inside the races to explore the macro- and micro-trends driving the campaign. Vance in the returns, but almost all of the results are early votes, which we expect to disproportionately favor Democrats. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. From an electoral point of view, the story here is consistent: Democrats have stoked the culture wars by getting more extreme on social issues and Republicans have used this to successfully cleave away a segment of both the non-college white vote and, more recently, the non-college nonwhite vote, Moving to the left may help galvanize the progressive base which is good! Mandela Barnes, and there is a close contest for governor. The final forecast lists six Toss Up races, one more than two years ago. Nov. 8, 2022, Nevada is the last big swing state of the day, and virtually everything is up for grabs: The races for Senate, three House seats, governor and secretary of state. Rosenberg was vindicated when Democrats vastly overperformed expectations last year. Wiley Nickel, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent North Carolinas 13th Congressional District. Depending on how many people vote Democrat in New Orleans, there is an outside chance for this seat to flip to the Democrats. The outcomes of the 6-8 contests that will most likely determine control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress will depend to a large extent on the individual candidates and their campaigns. I think its still immature. We just got all the way up to 55 percent in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Latest predictions for the House 2022 Elections, updated daily. Is the nations political realignment driving a state or congressional district from one partys column to the other? 465 Crestwood Drive P.O. An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. that guide every prediction he makes. Our newest ratings and updates, You seem to be suggesting that to grow further, just campaigning on abortion rights and attacking MAGA extremism isnt enough: There has to be something more proactive and positive to really expand the coalition. Lazaro Gamio The first polls are closing in Indiana and Kentucky. Vermont- this state has consistently voted for Democrat senators and the incumbent Patrick Leahy has been serving since 1974. You know you are right when you are hated by the left and the right. Officials say the timing of results will depend on how many people return their ballots at the last minute on Election Day. John Fetterman. The table includes the state, type of Senate race, predicted Democratic margin, and classification into 1 of 6 categories: Uncompetitive Democratic, Potentially Competitive Democratic, Very Competitive Democratic, Very Competitive Republican, Potentially Competitive Republican, and Uncompetitive Republican. Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. Updated daily, Ron Johnson Re-Election Polling and Predictions, Mark Kelly Re-Election Polling and Predictions, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. Albert Sun Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. It was really a late-covid manifestation, and as covid has receded in peoples lives, the conditions that created that conversation have evaporated. Read more Alicia Parlapiano First, as one would expect, the larger the predicted margin of victory, the likelier the prediction is to be correct. Table 3 summarizes the accuracy of these predictions based on a variety of characteristics including the year of the election, the party predicted to win, incumbent vs. open seat contests, and the predicted margin of victory. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. Republicans have won in four of five New York tossup seats, and the Republican candidate is ahead in the fifth. Maggie Astor Note: Win probabilities may not add up to 100 because of third-party candidates. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took And Kansas Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov. WebTexas Senate: With Democrats on Defense, Lone Star State Is a Reach Jessica Taylor March 29, 2023 Members Only Senate Overview The Looming Senate GOP Primary Wars Jessica Taylor March 7, 2023 Members Only Michigan Senate Michigan Senate: With Slotkin Announcement, Democrats Look to Avoid Primary Jessica Taylor February 28, Ruth Igielnik Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. Abortion clearly shifted the playing field in some of these places, and so did the MAGA extremism of some of the GOP candidates. To retain control of the House, Democrats must win 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily). Albert Sun Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. One big obstacle to that coalition growth project is that Florida Gov. In the case of the Senate, however, the results indicated that the outcome was likelier to be close to a standoff. Nov. 9, 2022, Majority-Hispanic counties in Florida voted to reelect Gov. That was mainly because Republicans currently hold 21 of the 35 seats that are up for election in 2022. Looking for the national forecast? I will still predict that Democrats will retain the seat, assuming Chris Sununu will run again for governor and a candidate with Trumps blessings runs. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. The results in Table 2 show that the 3 variable model was quite accurate, explaining 84% of the variance in the outcomes of individual Senate contests. From this video, its very clear that Joe Biden is going to go there. With the 2022 midterms just hours away, Senate races in the countrys battleground states look closer than ever. Its essential to loosening the dark grip of MAGA over the Republican Party. We rated every race in play in 2022. All 3 predictors had highly significant effects, with state presidential partisanship having the strongest influence. In several of these races, the discrepancy between the predicted and actual results was quite large. Its about 15 months for the mid-term elections in the United States. Nate Cohn US midterms 2022 Results Senate House Democrats retain control of the Senate Republican hopes of picking up seats in Arizona and Nevada fall short House We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. When reported data comes in that is not what we expected, our model will update and incorporate this new data. Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. GOP Rep. David Rouzer is coasting to reelection. Ron DeSantis could seek to use a decisive 2022 victory into a springboard for a national campaign in 2024. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. Yet Democrats often refrain from challenging right-wing culture-warring, as if they believe those are losing issues. This has to be the driving goal of the party this cycle. Florida: Likely to Lean Republican. . Alicia Parlapiano Here is a map of the states where one of its seats is due for election. The race for North Carolinas open Senate seat is leaning toward Representative Ted Budd, a Republican, according to our estimates. There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. Based on the accuracy of the predictions for elections between 2012 and 2020, we can have a high degree of confidence in the outcomes of races in which the predicted margin is greater than 10 points but less confidence if the predicted margin is less than 10 points.