For the fixed pool grouping, Grgens (2007) developed growth curves for both the well-established K-regions (Kovacs 1988) and the veld type zones (HRU 1972) in his regionalisation. However, the value describes the elevation of the water surface within each grid cell and is a measurement from a fixed zero elevation such as provided in the NAVD88 vertical datum. Flood depth data is necessary to determine flood impact to the community at each flood stage. President Biden has said that helping Americans adapt to a hotter Earth in an equitable way is one of his priorities. 6 0 obj [Links], HAILE AT (2011) Regional flood frequency analaysis in Southern Africa. Congress has considered such changes, as well as new requirements that flood risk be disclosed to homeowners and renters before they move in. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease. 11 0 obj Ryan Kellman/NPR FEMA warns that the First Street Foundation's analysis is only an estimate and that FEMA didn't provide the research group with details about the new flood insurance pricing plan, known as Risk Rating 2.0. data and the absence of suitable guidelines on the selection and accuracies of methods for estimating design floods. endobj %PDF-1.6 % /Resources << Ryan Kellman/NPR Analysis: Breaking Down the Difference. You will assume the role of a mapping technician responsible for analyzing the potential flood impact for your community. For this reason, the archaeological sites in Alexandria will be under the permanent . >> After the initial selection of gauges, additional gauges with 15-20 years of record were investigated for inclusion in the analysis in areas which did not have any gauges included in the initial selection. REGIONAL FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR KWAZULU-NATAL. It can also help mitigation planners understand buildings that are good candidates for purchase and removal. When the creek near downtown jumped its banks on the evening of June 23, 2016, the water immediately flooded into every home on Trigg's block. 1/72. For many flow-gauging stations investigated in this study, exceedance of the rating table by observed river stage was evident by values in the AMS which are constant and equal to the maximum rated discharge for the flow-gauging structure. >> "Now, it was just silence," he remembers. %PDF-1.3 Using the sample data the first time will help you learn how to use the tasks and how to organize your data. /MediaBox [0 0 595 842] The availability of gauged flows for large events with extreme discharges remains a challenge in South Africa. Water Research Commission, Pretoria. McGraw-Hill, New York. The city has responded to that threat by creating a flood mitigation "strike team," which has proposed spending nearly $500 million for stormwater management over the next 10 years. /Parent 2 0 R Stations which have more than 20% of the values in the AMS which exceed the maximum rated discharge were excluded from the study and, for the retained stations, the years with values which exceed the maximum rated discharge were assumed to be missing. But if there's another big flood, he adds, "I can't see our town surviving. Methods to extend the rating tables, and thus provide an estimate of discharge for all observed stage levels, need to be urgently developed. Kousky, of the University of Pennsylvania, says one reason for that disparity might be that flood insurance premiums don't currently take into account how expensive the house is. Once the analysis is completed, share the results with community stakeholders who can use the information to begin flood response or mitigation planning. Use this task to set the coordinate system and publish the new 3D scene to ArcGIS Online or your organization. 9, 67.4% of the gauges in KZN had a single unique maximum value in the AMS, whereas 15.7% of the gauges had the same maximum value in more than 20% of the years, which is an indication that the rating table used to convert the observed river stage into discharge had been exceeded. Practitioners in South Africa generally estimate design floods by performing a frequency analysis of gauged flow data at a given location, if flow data are available at the site of interest, or by using an event-based rainfall-runoff model, for example, using the rational method, unit hydrograph method, or Soil Conservation Services method adapted for conditions in South Africa (SCS-SA). Mkhandi et al. Department of Water Affairs, Pretoria. If you are unsure what these terms mean you should probably contact your host. "This is only going to be a bigger problem in the future," Eby says. 2 0 obj And they're emotionally exhausted by what feels like endless flooding. 2007-11-01T21:39:30-07:00 Acrobat Distiller 6.0 (Windows) daPI+BdB)*E8(ihDT,DTimVyt3 Alexandra Almond 130 Followers Principal at Meld Studios. 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Share the results for each flood scenario. After you have shared the 3D scene and depth elevation raster, you can view the results of the Flood Impact Analysis in a Scene Viewer in ArcGIS Online or ArcGIS Enterprise. If your organization does not have a 3D basemap, use 3D Basemaps to create your own 3D buildings, trees, and elevation surface. In this research report, an initial disaster inventory for Alexandra Township has been undertaken. The new data show, for the first time, where the federal government is subsidizing flood risk the most. Richard King, 59, is a cook and a lifelong resident of Southbridge. For homeowners who are currently underpaying for flood insurance, FEMA says it plans to raise rates by up to 18% each year until the price is accurate, according to a January report by the Congressional Research Service. 6, the veld type zones were grouped into 3 groups (Grgens 2007) as: (i) Group A (Veld Type Zone 2), (ii) Group B (Veld Type Zones 4, 5, 6, 7), and (iii) Group C (Veld Type Zones 1, 3, 8, 9). The service said, Flooding possible in parts of the Free State, Gauteng, North West, northern KZN and western Mpumalanga. /ExtGState 41 0 R From independent assessment of design floods estimated in the 9 regions using the regionalised flood frequency relationships, it was concluded that the regional approach was satisfactory (Haile, 2011). Water surface elevation data can be used to calculate bridge heights above flood stages and to visualize the flood stages as 3D surfaces. A number of regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) methods have been developed, which cover all or parts of South Africa. hide caption. As can be seen, had you completed this analysis using mean daily data, the result would have been an underestimation of the discharges associated with each return period. >> mean annual flood) at ungauged sites in a region. where: MAF = mean annual flood (m3s-1), CONSTANT = regionalised parameter, AREA = catchment area (km2), and EXPONENT = regionalised parameter. University of Pretoria, Pretoria. Van Bladeren (1993) derived growth curves using both continuously recorded data and discharges derived from historical flood information from the Natal and Transkei regions. The parameters for this step are similar to the road flood depth except for the buffer distance. what are limiting factors analysis and synthesis of data about floods in alexandra. "It's terrifying," says Diana, who didn't want her last name used because she thinks that talking publicly about flood damage could hurt the value of her home. /Contents 22 0 R Handbook of Hydrology. "This town has so much to offer," he says. A narrative synthesis can provide a first step in looking systematically at, and organising, the data. However, the JPV method with the regionalised GEV distribution generally performed well, with the veld zone regionalisation giving better results than the RMF K-region regionalisation. >> Towns like Rainelle are a bellwether for that future. /CreationDate (D:20070302092647) J. Are you sure you have the correct username and password? WRC Report No. Pastor Aaron Trigg was at home when the water arrived in Rainelle. FEMA cannot address the affordability problem on its own. Grgens (2007) used both a fixed pool group, referred to as 'wide' pooling, and adjustable pooling groups, referred to as 'narrow' pooling. /MediaBox [0 0 595 842] ", The cost of flood damage to homes in the U.S. will increase by more than 50% in the next 30 years, the First Street Foundation estimates. A critical aspect of RFFA is the identification of relatively homogenous flood response regions. 5, the K-regions were grouped into 3 regions: (i) high-K (K > 5), (ii) mid-K (K=5), and (iii) low-K (K < 5). None of these RFFA methods are currently widely used in practice to estimate design floods. As summarised by Smithers (2012), many studies have shown that RFFA will result in more accurate and consistent estimates than at-site analyses (e.g. The results from an analysis of the performance of the RFFA methods are shown in Table 1, which includes both the MAREM,D values for each method and the average slope between the 2 to 100 year return period floods computed at each site using the selected method (Estimated) and estimated from the observed data at the site (Observed). 2005-08-16T11:38:59-07:00 The Pearson Type 3 (P3) distribution fitted by probability weighted moments (PWM) was found to be the best distribution in all regions in South Africa, with the exception of SAF13 where the Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution fitted by the Method of Moments (MM) was used. IBM Research Division, Yorktown Heights, New York, USA. Given the relatively short flow-record lengths generally available it is necessary to use data from similar and nearby locations to improve the reliability of design flood estimates (Stedinger et al. /Resources << The meeting was of common view of the critical need to bring together (available) data on fishing operations to enable assessment of stock status and stock productivity - essential for the conservation of the stocks. dams, flood attenuation structures, culverts) requires the estimation of a design flood which is the magnitude of the flood associated with a given probability of exceedance or return period in years. /Length 31 tj -H330\H20B1 A /Font 33 0 R To create a water surface elevation raster, extract flooded areas, and crate the water surface elevation input geodatabase, follow the steps in the Prepare water surface elevation raster task. endstream endobj 318 0 obj <>/Metadata 27 0 R/Outlines 51 0 R/PageLayout/OneColumn/Pages 315 0 R/StructTreeRoot 70 0 R/Type/Catalog>> endobj 319 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 320 0 obj <>stream These include Van Bladeren (1993), Mkhandi et al. /ProcSet [/PDF /Text] /Parent 2 0 R 4. /MediaBox [0 0 595 842] Stream flow-gauges located in KZN were selected for inclusion in the analysis based on the attributes of the gauges. ", King is not surprised by NPR's findings that residents of Southbridge are getting a worse deal on flood insurance compared with residents of wealthier, whiter parts of the state. This approach is known as regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) and utilises data from several sites to estimate the frequency distribution of floods at each site. hb```@(1IEar[L}Nr6p003Ii'-,> ^Z9 Torrential downpours in South Africa have caused havoc on roads around Johannesburg and Gauteng Province. But the financial calculus there is different, because homeowners can afford flood insurance at least up to a point. 4: MAREM,D = mean absolute relative error (%) for RFFA Method = M and probability distribution = D (LP3 or GEV) for all stations (41) used, EM,T = design flood estimated using RFFA Method = M and for return period = T (2, 5, 10, 20, 50 or 100 years), OD,T = design flood estimated using observed AMS and probability distribution = D (LP3 or GEV) for return period = T (2, 5, 10, 20, 50 or 100 years). . Floods. NsuAA} Johannesburg EMS said they are monitoring rising water levels along the Jukskei river near Setswetla Informal settlement in Alexandra. /F4 48 0 R 10. WRC Report No. This task allows you to analyze impacted roads by calculating depth of flooding for each road segment for any number of flood levels. He's running for mayor, and he imagines Rainelle hosting an Appalachian music festival and attracting hiking tourists. << Are you sure you have typed the correct hostname? 69 pp. NPR also found that homeowners who are getting a better deal on flood insurance live in whiter neighborhoods. Pooled values for the coefficient of skewness (g) and coefficient of variation (CV) were weighted according to the record length and the inverse of a similarity distance (Disti,j), computed using Eq. /MediaBox [0 0 595 842] /Resources << Rainelle, W.Va., flooded in June 2016. /Rotate 0 /Contents 34 0 R 681/1/00. Use this task to share the depth elevation raster that was created previously to help improve the visualization of the 3D scene. You can repeat this task for every water surface elevation (WSE) raster. To share the flood impact in 3D, follow the tasks in the Share 3D flood impact scene task group. [Links], SMITHERS JC and SCHULZE RE (2000b) Long duration design rainfall estimates for South Africa. Flooding also damaged a building of Johannesburg's Helen Joseph Hospital. Design floods were estimated using the General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution fitted by PWM. Flooding in Alexandria occurs each winter and has an insufficient drainage system and infrastructure [71]. /Rotate 0 ln(Index Flood Peak) = Bo + B1 ln(Des1) + B2 ln(Des2) + B3 ln(Des3) + .(3). Both synthesis and analysis play an important role in market and competitive intelligence (M/CI), but are two markedly different stages of a broader CI process. << endobj Before the flood, Aaron Trigg says, there were baseball games and kids playing on the playground near his house in Rainelle. Nearly five years after a destructive flood, many storefronts in Rainelle, W.Va., are empty. DBE 3 2018 GUIDELINES FOR CONDUCTING A GEOGRAPHY RESEARCH EDUCATOR'S GUIDE Step 1: Formulating a hypothesis or a geographical statement As Geographers we seek to understand and explain the interactions between humans, and between humans and the environment in space and time. A limitation of using a single-site approach to flood frequency analysis is that relatively few gauging stations in South Africa have long record lengths (e.g. & Kukulka, T. (2003). >> The frequency with which recorded flow stages exceed the maximum rated level needs to be quantified and the impact of not including these extreme events in the estimation of design floods in South Africa must be quantified. Of the RFFA methods assessed in KZN, the Haile method gave the best performance in terms of the MARE, but consistently underestimated the design floods computed from the observed data when using either the GEV or LP3 distribution. /ExtGState 29 0 R endobj The best way to communicate the impact of a flood scenario is to show how it will impact homes, streets, bridges, and neighborhoods. Per- pass analysis of acute ischemic stroke clots: impact of stroke etiology on extracted clot area and histological composition - Journal of Distribution Future Energy Scenarios: Regional Review - South West licence area westernpower.co.uk - Western Power AREA II AREA II / RCRCA - Area II MN River Basin. /Parent 2 0 R Microsoft Word - Flood Frequency Example - Instantaneous Peaks.doc "We're the prey," he says. hide caption. [Links], HOSKING JRM and WALLIS JR (1990) Regional flood frequency analysis using L-moments. Flooding swept through parts of Soweto and Alexandra, damaging homes and forcing residents to evacuate. Trigg's displaced congregants would call him, hopeless, in the months after the flood. You can then symbolize the features according to the calculated flood exposure attribute such as the flood depth. /Contents [16 0 R 17 0 R 18 0 R] [Links], STEDINGER JR, VOGEL RM and FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU E (1993) Frequency analysis of extreme events. To identify low water crossings and symbolize the impact, follow the steps in the Analyze low water crossings task. /Resources << /Contents 31 0 R This task allows you to create 3D flood levels from raster input data. DISCUSSION, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS. Analysis and Synthesis of Data Analysis and Synthesis of Data 68. 8. "I absolutely don't see how a single-income family would be able to sustain even one flood," Diana says. Report No. /ProcSet [/PDF /Text] FEMA's changes could also help reverse a decades-long trend of overdevelopment in floodplains. analysis and synthesis of data about floods in alexandra Signup for our newsletter to get notified about our next ride. /Resources << /ExtGState 38 0 R Models of data from the mapped areas with high risk of flooding will be possible for quantitative predictions of floods, such as forecasts of local water levels; [13] Despite the advantages of a regional approach to design flood estimation, RFFA methods are not widely used in South Africa. 1, 13 flood regions were identified in South Africa. "It's just inequitable, and it's hurting the people who need the insurance the most by charging them way too much," flood expert Carolyn Kousky says. /Font 14 0 R [Links], SMITHERS JC and SCHULZE RE (2000a) Development and evaluation of techniques for estimating short duration design rainfall in South Africa. The planning stages were survey, data inventory, data analysis, synthesis, and riverscape concept. Flooding swept through parts of Soweto and Alexandra, damaging homes and forcing residents to evacuate. When large numbers of people don't have insurance or savings after a disaster, the effects can ripple through. /Font 39 0 R The result of this study was the basic concepts of ecotourism development, which were realized in . (2000), Grgens (2007) and Haile (2011). 10, the JPV method using the regionalised GEV distribution and veld-zone regionalisation performed the best of the RFFA methods considered in this study. Technical Report TR137. Still, many homeowners in Alexandria, where the median household income is just over $100,000, are concerned about the rising cost of flood damage and insurance. /MediaBox [0 0 595 842] /ModDate (D:20070302092647) A depth elevation raster can improve the visualization of flood impact in 3D scenes, particularly in flood scenarios with very shallow flooding. . >> Synthesis vs. Data from 74 flow gauging stations and inflows to dams were used in the regionalisation, with the distribution of stations as shown in Fig. This task allows you to calculate depth of flooding for each low-level crossing for each flood scenario. >> endstream endobj 103 0 obj <>/Encoding<>>>>> endobj 65 0 obj <> endobj 66 0 obj <> endobj 146 0 obj <> endobj 20 0 obj <> endobj 25 0 obj <> endobj 156 0 obj <> endobj 147 0 obj <> endobj 137 0 obj <> endobj 133 0 obj <> endobj 127 0 obj <> endobj 107 0 obj <> endobj 126 0 obj <>stream /ExtGState 35 0 R For the selected gauges used in this study, a single unique maximum value in the AMS was found at 87.8% of the gauges, and 12.2% of the sites had up to 15% of the years with the same maximum value. The First Street Foundation data suggest that in one particularly hard-hit area of a neighborhood called Del Ray, the cost of flood damage will increase by 76% in the next three decades. Those places include wealthy neighborhoods in Sarasota, Fla., Charleston, S.C., and exclusive suburbs of Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles and New York. "Because that's a big bill that a lot of people can't afford when your basement gets flooded and the damage is done. The city is even planning to help some residents pay to flood-proof their houses, since bigger drainage projects will take years to complete. 8 0 obj /Resources << A link is provided to download sample data for Baltimore. To remove negative values, extract flooded areas, and create the flood depth geodatabase, follow the steps in the Prepare flood depth rasters task. Charles Sauriol Conservation Area Salmon Run. Water Research Commission, Pretoria. And municipal governments are able to invest in expensive flood mitigation projects. [Links], GRGENS AHM (2007) Joint peak-volume (JPV) design flood hydrographs for South Africa. Flood frequency analysis is a technique used by hydrologists to predict flow values corresponding to specific return periods or probabilities along a river. /Type /Page The Flood Impact Analysis ArcGIS Pro project includes a series of tasks to help guide you through these workflows. Use this task to calculate the bridge height above flood water surface for each flood scenario. A description for each task in this group is listed below. @JoburgMPD #RegionE officers are present diverting traffic. "Now, it was just silence," he remembers. In: Parker DJ (ed.) 15 0 obj "I did a lot of praying that night," he says. The risk value for each raster is read from the riskTypeTable for the chosen risk type. J. That's a safety net that is unavailable to residents of poorer towns. Artificially cheap federal flood insurance has incentivized developers and residents to build in places that are more and more likely to be underwater. After the flood, that changed. These tasks require ArcGIS Online or ArcGIS Enterprise 10.5 or later. Ryan Kellman/NPR The catchment descriptors (Desi) included catchment area, equal area catchment slope, MAR90, and an index of the veld type zone or K-region. The details of who wins and who loses when it comes to flood insurance could be useful for Congress and FEMA as they address climate risks. Meanwhile, sea level rise and wetter, more-powerful hurricanes are threatening coastal towns. In addition, design floods generally need to be estimated at sites where observed flood data are not available and thus rainfall-based methods or regionalised methods need to be used to estimate design floods at ungauged sites.
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